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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY |
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WORKSHOP
CASPIAN OIL & GAS SCENARIOS
After a decade of rising
expectations, what will a
factual analysis decide for the decade to come?
Paris 11 November 2002
Workshop
A high-level Round Table with stakeholders, scheduled to take place in Florence
on the 14/15 April 2003, will take stock of Caspian Oil and Gas developments
over the past decade and discuss the likely scenarios for its development over
the next decade.
In order to prepare for this event, the IEA is calling a meeting to consider all matters relevant to the Round Table.
The Themes
Experts are invited to comment on the themes suggested below and to introduce
matters that they feel are important to the future development of the Caspian.
Infrastructure and Investment
Unlocking the East Caspian: how will oil and gas reach final markets over the
next decade? What is the impact of the 'Gas Alliance' and other international
initiatives within the region for the export options of incremental oil and gas
volumes such as Kashagan?
Investment and Commercial Climate
Are perceptions of slow-tracked market reform, fragile legal stability and
governance justified? How do they relate to the availability of alternative
investment options (West-Coast Africa, Sakhalin, Mexican Gulf…)?
Policy and Governance
Domestic and International Public Interests: what impact do they have on future
investment? Oil funds, local content and domestic economic recovery,
transparency, and environment stability. Many opinions but very few
acknowledged decision making authorities.
Public and Private Legal Issues
Singular views on national security and sovereign interest in e.g. debate on
Caspian delimitation raise investment protection issues that affect a wide
range of stakeholders. This may risk legal entanglement if not deadlock of what
should be strong regional development.
The Objective
Participants are asked to identify what conditions will have either a positive
or a negative impact on developments in the Caspian region. This will allow the
IEA to consider the possible scenarios for oil and gas market development in
the region. A draft position paper and draft agenda for the round table is
circulated for discussion.